The Buffalo Bills walked into Solider Field and left with a 35-13 win over the Chicago Bears.
The Bills’ ability to dominate the line of scrimmage was the main reason for the victory, as they rushed for 254 yards against Chicago. The Bears totalled 80 rushing yards, averaging a minuscule 2.8 yards per carry in the loss.
Next on the schedule for Buffalo is a road date with the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. Here are the Bills betting trends you need to know before Week 17’s game.
Bills betting trends
Roll with run game in winter weather
Buffalo’s 402.3 yards of offence per game are the second-most in the NFL this season, but the team’s averaging a noticeably lower 368.0 yards per contest over its last three. The reason for that doesn’t have to do with anything schematically, but instead, it deals with the weather.
During that time the Bills played the New York Jets in cold, wet conditions. The week after, they faced the Miami Dolphins in a game that other than being cold was fairly ideal for scoring. Their most recent contest, a road game against the Bears, featured 20-mile-an-hour winds and temperatures well below freezing.
Josh Allen only threw for 200-plus yards once in that span, hanging 304 passing yards on Miami. Otherwise, Buffalo’s passing offence — much like its opponents’ — hasn’t been able to do much.
The suboptimal weather explains why Buffalo is averaging fewer yards per game, and also why the Bills are leaning on the run more. They’re running on 45.90% of their plays over the last three contests, which is nearly a 5% increase from their season-long rate (41.37%), according to Team Rankings.
With that in mind, bettors will want to consider overs on Buffalo rushing props. Allen has surpassed 40 yards in each of his last three contests, while Devin Singletary (106 yards) and James Cook (99) are coming off their most productive rushing games of the season.
The Bills are tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the most rushing yards per play (5.3).
Bills difficult to predict ATS
Buffalo hasn’t been the most profitable team to back against the spread this season.
In fact, it’s 7-8 versus the number in 2022 and there’s really no trend to glean from recent results. The Bills are 2-2 against the spread over the last four weeks and 3-3 across its last six games.
The main reason for that is the huge spreads applied to the team on a weekly basis. Buffalo has been a seven-point favourite or greater in five of its last six outings and seven of its last nine. Covering numbers that high on a consistent basis is difficult for any team and not something bettors should expect.
The Bills do find themselves in a rare spot this week, though, as small one-point favourites on the road against the Bengals. Covering spreads of three points or less in the regular season has been much easier, as they’re 10-4 in that scenario since 2020.
Here are the results of each of those games.
| Date | Opponent | Spread | Result |
| 9/27/20 | vs. Rams | BUF -1.5 | BUF 35-32 (Y) |
| 10/13/20 | at Titans | BUF -3 | TEN 42-16 (N) |
| 10/19/20 | vs. Chiefs | BUF +5.5 | KC 26-17 (N) |
| 11/8/20 | vs. Seahawks | BUF +3 | BUF 44-34 (Y) |
| 11/15/20 | at Cardinals | BUF +3 | ARI 32-30 (Y) |
| 12/7/20 | at 49ers | BUF +1.5 | BUF 34-24 (Y) |
| 12/13/20 | vs. Steelers | BUF -2 | BUF 26-15 (Y) |
| 1/3/21 | vs. Dolphins | BUF +3.5 | BUF 56-26 (Y) |
| 10/10/21 | at Chiefs | BUF +3 | BUF 38-20 (Y) |
| 12/6/21 | vs. Patriots | BUF -3 | NE 14-10 (N) |
| 12/12/21 | at Buccaneers | BUF +3.5 | TB 33-27 (N) |
| 12/26/21 | at Patriots | BUF +1 | BUF 33-21 (Y) |
| 9/8/22 | at Rams | BUF -2.5 | BUF 31-10 (Y) |
| 10/16/22 | at Chiefs | BUF -2.5 | BUF 24-20 (Y) |
Buffalo is 9-2 ATS across its last 11 games where it’s less than a three-point favourite.
Fade Stefon Diggs
The winter weather is clearly having an effect on Buffalo’s passing game, and the player who’s feeling it the most is Stefon Diggs.
The superstar wide receiver cleared 70 receiving yards in 10 of his first 12 games of the season. Diggs has failed to surpass that mark in any of his last three contests, though, and it’s a byproduct of fewer pass attempts per game in the offence.
Check out his numbers through the first 12 games of the season compared to his last three.
| Stefon Diggs | Targets per game | Receptions per game | Yards per game | Touchdowns per game |
| First 12 games | 10.7 | 7.6 | 100.2 | 0.8 |
| Last 3 games | 5.3 | 3.3 | 41 | 0 |
Diggs is seeing half as many targets, hauling in four fewer receptions per contest, and fewer than half the receiving yards per outing.
The forecast in Cincinnati for Monday night is calling for cool weather and precipitation, according to The Weather Channel. Another slog of a game could be on deck, making Diggs a player to avoid on the prop market.
How to bet Buffalo game totals
The Bills are one of the better offensive teams in the NFL, which means sportsbooks aren’t going to make it easy to bet game total overs.
This week, it faces another elite offence in Cincinnati. The total is 49.5 for the game, making it the second-highest number on the board for Week 17. Both teams’ results from this season suggest taking the under when the total reaches these heights.
Buffalo has played in six games with a total of 49 points or greater and the under has hit in five of those contests. The Bengals, meanwhile, have played in two games with a total that high and the under hit in both.
On the season as a whole, the under has come through in 10 of the Bills’ 15 games and nine of Cincinnati’s 15. Bettors should look to fade this inflated total, especially on a night with precipitation in the forecast.
Pass on Allen overs
More running means less passing, hence why avoiding the over on Allen’s passing props is a wise move.
Buffalo ranks eighth on the season with an average of 36.2 pass attempts per game, but that number is dropping. The squad sits 20th in the NFL with just 31.0 throws per contest over its last three.
Five attempts per game below the season rate may not seem like much, but it’s pretty significant when compounded with less efficiency due to weather.
Allen is averaging 6.70 yards per attempt across his last three games, which is more than a complete yard less than his 7.69 yards per throw mark in his first 12.
His completion percentage is also down from 64.11% to 60.22% during the same time frame. With volume and efficiency both lacking, bettors should fade Allen’s passing props.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
