Listen Podcast on Where is the Money in Trades ?
Transcript
(0:00 – 0:31)
You know, for decades now, we’ve all been handed this, this very specific, almost sacred blueprint for a successful life, right? Like, the deal was pretty straightforward. You sit at a desk in high school, so you can go to university to sit at another desk. Right.
And then you eventually get a job sitting at a slightly nicer desk. Exactly. And the implicit message there, you know, baked into that whole blueprint has always been that success, like real generation shifting financial success only happens in these climate controlled rooms.
(0:31 – 0:54)
Yeah. The caller has to be white or, well, you’ve somehow failed the assignment. Right.
But what happens when the literal physical infrastructure keeping those climate controlled offices running starts to fracture? Things get messy very quickly. Yeah. You get a situation where someone with a master’s degree in digital marketing is standing in a flooded basement, just staring at a dead electoral panel, completely powerless.
(0:54 – 1:34)
Which is a very real scenario happening every day. Absolutely. So today you and I are doing a deep dive into a really fascinating report from Support Tips.
It’s titled, Where is the Money in Trades? And it exposes this massive wealth transfer that’s happening right now, specifically in this 2025 to 2026 window. It really is a total paradigm shift. It is.
Okay. Let’s unpack this because the wealth is shifting away from the corner office and straight into the hands of the people wearing tool belts. And our mission today is to uncover exactly where this blue collar money is hiding and why that four year degree only advice might actually be, well, costing you a fortune.
(1:35 – 1:50)
What’s fascinating here is how the traditional markers of status are basically acting like a trap right now. A trap? How so? Well, this social prejudice that equates dirty hands with a dumb job is actually functioning as a massive financial moat for the people who do enter the trades. Oh, because it keeps people away.
(1:50 – 2:23)
Exactly. It keeps the competition artificially low. So many young people would rather, as the report puts it, swipe right then show up.
So the wages for those who actually do show up are just surging. They’re hitting territories that used to be strictly reserved for lawyers and software engineers. Wow.
So the dirt and the sweat are literally keeping the competition away. I was looking at the demographic numbers in this report just break down before we started, and it’s staggering. The demographic cliff is very real.
(2:24 – 2:37)
Yeah. I mean, we’ve all heard about a labor shortage, but this is something else entirely. The construction industry alone needed 349,000 net new workers in 2026 just to keep their heads above water.
(2:38 – 3:18)
And that number is really just the tip of the iceberg. You have to look at the age of the people currently doing the heavy lifting. Right.
Because they’re all retiring soon. Exactly. You have 40 to 45 percent of skilled trade workers who are over the age of 45 right now.
We are watching a tidal wave of retirements hit an industry where the replacement rate is, frankly, virtually non-existent. Gen Z makes up a mere 12 percent of the construction workforce. 12 percent.
That is a massive structural vacuum of supply and demand playing out on a generational scale. It really is. So what does this all mean? I was trying to wrap my head around why these specific trades command such massive premiums.
(3:19 – 3:27)
And it feels like they generate something we could call perishable urgency. Oh, perishable urgency. That’s a great way to frame it.
(3:27 – 3:33)
Yeah. It’s like being the only ER doctor in a small town. If a homeowner’s pipe bursts at two in the morning, their drywall is literally melting.
(3:33 – 4:05)
They don’t have the luxury of shopping around for a better quote. Right. And if you look at the mechanical trade, so plumbers, pipe fitters, millwrights, when a massive factory production line suddenly halts, every minute that line is down, cost the manufacturer tens of thousands of dollars.
They don’t have time to negotiate. The ER doctor analogy is close, but there’s one crucial difference that actually gives the tradesperson even more leverage in this scenario. OK, what’s that? Well, if an emergency room is too expensive, you can technically fly or drive a patient to another hospital.
(4:05 – 4:39)
You cannot helicopter a burst pipe to a different state. You can’t outsource a broken factory assembly line to across the globe. Oh, wow.
Yeah, the problem is geographically locked. Precisely. It’s locked to your physical location.
So in that moment of crisis, the customer has absolutely zero bargaining power. The urgency is perishable, and the person with the wrench simply dictates the terms. OK, that makes total sense.
And the numbers totally back up that leverage. I had to read this twice. Plumbers, pipe fitters and steam fitters hit a median pay of around $63,000.
(4:40 – 4:53)
But the top 10 percent… They’re clearing over $105,000 a year. Yeah, $105,000. And with governments updating water systems and manufacturers retooling, there are 44,000 openings projected every single year.
(4:53 – 5:48)
You see a very similar dynamic with HVACR technicians, actually. And for anyone wondering that R is crucial, it stands for refrigeration. Wait, refrigeration, like fixing a kitchen fridge? Think much bigger than that.
We’re talking about industrial refrigeration. Oh, OK, like warehouses and stuff. Exactly.
The cooling systems required to keep massive data centers from melting down, or the climate control for vaccine storage facilities, the entire grocery supply chain. So it’s basically the weatherproof backbone of the modern economy. That’s a perfect way to put it.
Their median sits around $60,000, but the top earners are pulling in over $91,000. And their demand is being turbocharged by extreme weather events and building electrification. Because when it’s dangerously hot or freezing cold, fixing the climate control isn’t some luxury, right? It’s a physiological and structural necessity.
(5:48 – 6:10)
Right. You literally cannot put it off until next Tuesday. Here’s where it gets really interesting, though.
If the mechanical trades are making their money from physical wear and tear and that perishable urgency, what happens when we start upgrading our infrastructure to be smart? That shifts us over to the electrical side of the report. Exactly. And the money there seems to be flowing for totally different reasons.
(6:10 – 6:26)
Because the outdated stereotype of an electrician is just, you know, a guy pulling copper wire through a wooden frame. Which couldn’t be further from the truth today. Right.
This report makes them sound like computer diagnosticians. They absolutely are. The profession has evolved dramatically.
(6:27 – 6:51)
If you take an industrial electrician today, they might be debugging a programmable logic controller inside an automated Amazon warehouse. Wait, a programmable logic controller for the listener who isn’t an electrical engineer? What exactly is that? Think of it as the physical brain of a factory. It’s a ruggedized computer that tells the conveyor belts when to stop, the robotic arms when to weld, the cooling pumps when to turn on.
(6:51 – 7:07)
Oh, wow. So it’s heavily software reliant. Very much so.
An electrician today isn’t just twisting wires together, they’re interfacing with these complex logic-based systems. They are diagnosing software-to-hardware communication failures. And the growth rates really reflect that complexity.
(7:08 – 7:17)
Electricians had a median pay of over $62,000. But the jaw-dropping stat is the 9% growth rate. Which is astronomical for a mature industry.
(7:17 – 7:30)
Yeah, it’s generating 81,000 openings every year for the next decade. Driven by data centers, electric vehicle charging networks, rewiring the national grid. There’s also the power line installers mentioned in the report.
(7:30 – 7:43)
Oh, right. They face serious physical risks, but they’re earning a median of over $92,000, with top earners hitting nearly $127,000. And that requires zero university degree, just an apprenticeship.
(7:43 – 8:14)
That is a secure six-figure career path right there. If we connect this to the bigger picture though, since we’re talking about apprenticeships and six-figure incomes, we have to look at the absolute peak of the regulated trades. You mean the elevator and escalator installers? Exactly.
If you want to understand how wealth is structurally protected in the trades, this is the prime example. I saw those numbers on the sheet, and my jaw dropped. Median annual wage of over $106,000, with the top tier making nearly $150,000.
(8:15 – 8:23)
It’s incredible. Why are they the undisputed pay kings? Because they benefit from a dual-layered moat. A dual-layered moat.
(8:23 – 8:30)
Yeah. First, there is that geographic reality we discussed earlier. You cannot outsource vertical transport in a city.
(8:30 – 8:39)
You can’t send a broken elevator shaft in a 40-story building to another country to be repaired. Right. You physically have to be standing inside the shaft.
(8:39 – 8:47)
Exactly. But the second layer is institutional. The elevator mechanic unions enforce incredibly stringent apprenticeship ratios.
(8:47 – 8:58)
Meaning what exactly? They just don’t let people in? Essentially, yes. They strictly regulate how many apprentices can enter the field based on the number of active journeymen. Oh, so it’s a completely controlled pipeline.
(8:58 – 9:44)
Right. By legally gatekeeping the supply of certified labor, while the demand, the number of skyscrapers and multi-story buildings continues to grow, they artificially ensure their wages remain astronomical. It is the ultimate geographic and institutional monopoly.
That is fascinating. It’s brilliant, really. Okay.
So we talked about the high hourly wages, the emergency call-out fees, the geographic monopolies. But earning a great wage is just one piece of the puzzle, right? How do these workers build generational wealth? That’s the million-dollar question. Because earning $100,000 a year is great, but if you’re destroying your body to do it, what’s the end game? The sources point to two massive financial multipliers that play here, unions and business ownership.
(9:44 – 9:49)
This is a critical pivot in the data. We have to move from discussing mere income to analyzing net worth. Right.
(9:50 – 10:22)
Let’s look at what the report calls the institutional wealth pump, the union effect. The financial delta between union and non-union is staggering. It really is.
I’m looking at the data for 2024. Union-represented workers in construction and extraction occupations earned a median of $1,475 per week. And the non-union tiers? Just $974 a week.
That is a 51% premium. How does that gap even exist? Well, it exists through collective bargaining power, obviously. But the weekly paycheck is only half the story.
(10:22 – 10:43)
The real wealth pump is the hidden compensation, the benefits. Oh, the stuff you don’t see on the hourly rate. Right.
95% of union-represented civilian workers have access to fully funded retirement benefits and medical care plans. Wow. Compare that to just over 70% for non-union workers.
(10:43 – 10:59)
Let’s actually map that out because benefit sounds so, you know, abstract. Yeah. Walk me through the real world scenario.
What does that actually look like for, say, a 22-year-old? Gladly. Let’s compare two 22-year-olds. One just graduated with a four-year degree in a standard white-collar field.
(10:59 – 11:10)
Okay. So they probably have, what, $40,000 to $50,000 in student loan debt? Exactly. And they’re starting an entry-level job at maybe $55,000 a year, contributing a meager 3% to a 401k.
(11:10 – 12:06)
Sounds about right. Now look at the 22-year-old union journeyman plumber. They started their apprenticeship at 18, so they have zero student debt.
In fact, they’ve been earning money for those four years while At 22, they are already making $80,000 a year, and their union has been pouring money into a multi-employer pension plan and a premium health care fund since day one. So while the college graduate is spending the next 10 years just digging out of a negative net worth, the journeyman is already compounding real wealth. Exactly.
When you model that out over a 30-year career, factoring in the time value of money in the absence of debt, that difference in health and retirement security alters the net worth calculus by hundreds of thousands of dollars. That is unbelievable. It’s this invisible wealth that compounds quietly over decades, allowing that tradesperson to retire comfortably at 55, rather than working until their body gives out.
(12:06 – 12:15)
That completely flips the script on the whole safe college route. Yeah. But there’s another path to huge wealth here, which brings us to the whole W-2 versus equity debate.
(12:15 – 12:23)
Yes, the entrepreneurial leap. Right. For the listener, W-2 just means you are an employee trading your time for a paycheck.
(12:23 – 12:29)
Equity means you own the business. You own the means of production. And the trades offer a very unique path to equity.
(12:29 – 12:38)
Yeah. The report highlights this massive entrepreneurial leap in the structural trades. Things like excavation, concrete finishing, heavy equipment operation.
(12:38 – 12:55)
The barrier to entry to transition from employee to owner in these specific trades is famously low, which is what makes them so lucrative. Right. The report says you need maybe $15,000 in tools, a reliable van, and a solid reputation for actually showing up on schedule.
(12:56 – 13:02)
Which is half the battle, honestly. Totally. Yet the profit margins in these businesses rival sleek tech startups.
(13:03 – 13:17)
I love the analogy of a contractor who owns their own backhoe and crane. They aren’t just selling their looter by the hour anymore. Exactly.
They are selling the literal bedrock that all other trades depend on. It’s like selling the shovels during a gold rush. But in this case, you own the ground too.
(13:18 – 13:34)
That shift from W-2 to equity is the ultimate wealth multiplier. When a master plumber or an HVAC tech transitions from working for someone else to running a two truck operation, they tap into an entirely different financial stream. Because they aren’t just a laborer anymore.
(13:35 – 13:45)
Right. They transition from selling their own limited time, which caps out at 24 hours a day, to leveraging hard assets and other people’s time. They scale their expertise.
(13:45 – 13:52)
They build actual enterprise value. Yes. Value that they can eventually sell, which is something a W-2 employee can never do.
(13:52 – 13:59)
Okay. I want to press you on something here, though. We’ve covered the mechanical emergencies, the critical electrical infrastructure, the bedrock construction.
(14:00 – 14:07)
But what about the trades that don’t rely on a flooded basement or a heavy backhoe? You mean the aesthetics? Yeah. I’m talking about the finishing trades. Yeah.
(14:07 – 14:38)
Painters, drywallers, carpenters. The data shows painters sitting at a median of around 48,000 and carpenters at 59,000. But hold on.
If we’re talking about secure wealth, aren’t these trades incredibly vulnerable? Like if a recession hits or the economy tanks, nobody’s dropping 50 grand on custom crown molding. Don’t these guys go broke first? This raises an important question, and it’s a very fair challenge. Generally speaking, yes, the broader finishing trades do feel a recessionary chill first.
(14:38 – 14:52)
Homeowners hold off on repainting the living room or redoing the baseboards. Exactly. However, the report highlights massive wealth microeconomies that exist completely insulated from those macroeconomic downturns.
(14:52 – 14:59)
Wait. Insulated? How? We are talking about the ultra high-end custom remodel market. Ah, the luxury microeconomy.
(14:59 – 15:17)
Precisely. This is the economics of the perfection premium. The perfection premium.
I like that. Imagine a master tile setter who specializes in complex, seamless marble shower enclosures. Or a finished carpenter who can install cathedral ceiling moldings without a single visible seam, working with imported exotic woods.
(15:17 – 15:27)
The kind of work that looks like it just grew there organically flawlessly. Yes. In these highly specific luxury markets, the wealthy client is no longer paying for speed.
(15:27 – 15:37)
They aren’t paying for basic functionality. They are paying for absolute, flawless perfection. And perfection is incredibly difficult to scale.
(15:37 – 15:51)
Exactly. Which makes it phenomenally expensive. This creates a highly lucrative, highly resilient niche.
Even during a severe economic downturn, the ultra wealthy are still building custom homes. Right. Their spending doesn’t really stop.
(15:52 – 16:34)
No, it doesn’t. They demand a level of craftsmanship that only a fraction of a tradespeople can deliver, and they will gladly pay a massive premium to secure that specific artisan. So even there, a moat exists.
It’s just a moat built on extreme irreplaceable skill rather than extreme urgency. That’s it. It’s precision over volume.
They aren’t competing on price. They are competing on mastery. Man, this all paints such a different picture than the one we are usually sold in high school career counseling.
If we zoom out and look at the aggregate data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, installation, maintenance, and repair occupations as a whole have a median wage of over $58,000. Which is very solid. Yeah, that is comfortably above the $49,000 median for all occupations nationwide.
(16:35 – 16:46)
And there are over 608,000 openings each year in this category. The statistics are just undeniable. The money is there, the security is there, and the demand is only compounding.
(16:46 – 17:09)
And this matters directly to you listening to this deep dive right now. If you’ve ever paid a HVAC repair bill that felt like a car payment, or if you’ve been wondering whether pushing for that four-year degree is still the ultimate safety net, this data completely rewrites the reality you’ve been sold. The white-collar-only path is no longer the undisputed king of wealth generation.
(17:10 – 17:18)
In many ways, it’s becoming the riskier bet. I completely agree. And I want to leave you with one final thought to ponder, something that builds on everything we’ve unpacked today.
(17:18 – 17:31)
Oh, lay it on us. We are rapidly entering an era where artificial intelligence can instantly write complex Python code. It can draft sophisticated legal briefs and analyze massive financial spreadsheets in seconds.
(17:31 – 17:54)
Right. White-collar automation is here. Exactly.
A huge swath of white-collar work is facing an existential automation threat. But AI doesn’t have hands. It cannot physically crawl into a 120 degree attic to diagnose a blown capacitor on an HVAC unit or navigate the chaotic, unpredictable physical environment of a flooded construction site.
(17:54 – 18:10)
It just can’t. So will that very moat of dirt and sweat, we talked about the messy physical reality of the work, make blue-collar trades the ultimate, genuinely AI-proof career of the 21st century? Man, that is a powerful thought. Yeah.
(18:10 – 18:32)
It really makes you look at that person walking into the hardware store with a tool belt very differently, doesn’t it? Absolutely. They aren’t just fixing the pipes. They might be holding the most secure, irreplaceable job of the future.
The blueprint for success hasn’t just changed, you know. The entire foundation has been rebuilt from the ground up. Next time you see a tradesperson’s van fly by on the highway, remember, you’re not just looking at a service call, you’re looking at the new economy in motion.
